IN CONGRESS

Posted at 5:15 P.M. ET

In focusing on the presidential race there's a tendency to ignore Congress.  In fact, all of the House and a third of the Senate are up for grabs this November.

Until now the conventional wisdom in the MSM held that the Democrats would sweep Congress, leaving maybe, oh, a Republican senator or two, and about half dozen congressmen, all right wingers who would put women in prison, take away minority voting rights and have Exxon-Mobil rewrite the Constitution.  All on the first day.

Maybe not.

Gallup reports that the congressional preference gap has closed considerably.  The GOP has an honest shot at turning things around.  Although replacing Nancy Pelosi on the speaker's throne is a dream, it's a dream worth pursuing.  Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

Maybe the voters noticed what Congress accomplished this year.  That took a second.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

Maybe we're seeing more of the Sarah magic.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

And get this.  Drumroll please:

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

It's panic time in Aspen, hysteria in Manhattan, a call-the-shrink moment in Beverly Hills.  Oh, the joy of it all.  Get out the digital camera.

If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.

I'll take it.  Bottom line:

Now that the symbolic leadership of the party is shifting away from Bush and toward the suddenly popular Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, things may be changing. This shrinks Bush's shadow over the Republicans, revealing more of the Democrats' own shadow stemming from high disapproval of Congress.

Key point made by Gallup:  We don't know if this will continue.  McCain/Palin and the GOP must fight and fight, and never let up.

September 12, 2008.